Proof

Where our intelligence has landed.

The races we have called and the news we have made, plus the press writing about us. Block-level work, evidenced in the open.

Engine output. Race, ballot, issue.

The calls we made,
before anyone else saw them.

The calls below come from the same engine that runs AdScape™, across race, ballot and issue.

California · Gubernatorial Published in advance. Outcome pending.

When $8.7M went up for grabs, AdScape called where it would land

Model output

California · Orphaned spend and projected redeployment

A candidate's exit orphaned 8.7 million dollars of paid infrastructure, 4.9 million in pro-candidate spend and a 3.8 million attack apparatus. The Pharos read projected 70 percent of the attack money would redeploy against the emerging front-runner, with an 18 percent secondary, on a signature match of 0.94.

Read

When $8.7M went up for grabs, AdScape called where it would land.

Action

One exit, two orphaned apparatuses. Two paid-advertising machines were stranded at once, and the attack money has a signature, so we matched it.

Outcome

Pre-record the defensive creative for a 48-hour launch, and own the high-fit lane the field left empty.

$8.7M
Paid infrastructure
orphaned overnight
70%
Probability it pivots
within 14 days
0.94
Signature match
behind the call
Georgia 14 · Congressional Outcome confirmed

A Democrat topped a Republican stronghold a week before anyone else saw it.

Model output

Georgia 14 · Leading candidate by block group

Prediction markets priced the district 91 percent Republican while the Pharos structural read surfaced the vulnerability; the actual result was a 25 point Democratic overperformance.

Read

Pharos's model surfaced a neighborhood-level swing the polling environment missed.

Action

Pharos published the call publicly a week before the jungle primary.

Outcome

Clay Fuller topped MTG's old seat, advancing to runoff ahead of the Trump-endorsed candidate.

7 days
Lead time on
the call
First
Public model
to surface it
GA-14
Runoff
confirmed
Virginia HJ4 · Ballot Outcome confirmed

Opposition pressure surfaced with a nine-day window to respond.

Activation universe

Virginia HJ4 · Support campaign, by block group

Activated neighborhoods voted YES at 65.4 percent versus 30.7 percent in deprioritized areas, a 35 point targeting gap.

Read

AdScape modeled +44% opposition spend surge across two target DMAs, week over week.

Action

Campaign reallocated paid spend to the two pressure markets before the closing weekend.

Outcome

Pharos called VA 2026 at 94% locality accuracy (r = 0.92 by neighborhood). Activated cells voted YES at 65.4%.

+44%
Spend surge,
week over week
2.3×
Pressure in two
target DMAs
94%
Locality accuracy
(r = 0.92 by neighborhood)
Press from us. Press about us.

In the news.

Announcements straight from PharosGraph, plus coverage of our work in the media. For media inquiries, contact press@pharosgraph.com.

Press releases
Aug 25, 2026

L2 and PharosGraph Partner to Bring Voter-Level Narrative Intelligence to Political and Advocacy Activation

PharosGraph's voter-level models are now on L2's national voter file, helping campaigns and advocacy teams build persuasion, turnout, ballot, and local-narrative audiences for omnichannel activation.

Read the release
Jun 3, 2026

PharosGraph and AdImpact Partner to Deliver Real-Time Narrative and Competitive Intelligence for Political Advertising

PharosGraph and AdImpact announced a strategic partnership to bring real-time ad tracking together with narrative measurement to political advertising, enabling campaigns, agencies and advocacy organizations to better understand how campaign messaging is gaining traction with voters in-flight.

Read the release
May 31, 2026

PharosGraph launches AdScape with AdImpact partnership

PharosGraph announced AdScape, a paid-media intelligence capability built in partnership with AdImpact, giving campaigns the ability to read paid environments while a flight is still live.

Mar 4, 2026

Causal and PharosGraph Partner to Bring AI-Powered Narrative Intelligence to Political Campaigns

Collaboration connects neighborhood-level narrative diagnostics with digital activation, helping campaigns identify persuasion opportunities before shifts appear in the polls.

Read the release
Coverage in the media
Aug 25, 2026
MediaPost Joe Mandese

It's The Salience, Stupid

PharosGraph's integration with L2 effectively closes the loop with an integration it announced earlier this year with political ad tracking and spending platform AdImpact

Read on MediaPost
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