In the 24 Senate and governor races on the November 3, 2026 ballot where neither side is priced above 90%, PharosGraph’s market-to-vote conversion puts Democrats a median 5.8 points ahead of the same state’s 2024 presidential vote. Our estimates come from Kalshi win prices for 67 races, recorded on November 1, 2026, at 10:07 PM ET, before any polls closed.
In 20 of those 24 races, our estimated shift runs toward Democrats. Our largest estimated shifts are in the Alaska governor race (11.9 points), the Iowa governor race (11.5) and the Ohio governor race (9.6). Alaska, Iowa and Ohio voted Republican for president by double digits in 2024, and the Democrat is now favored in each of those races.
The four competitive races moving the other way are ones where the candidate counts for more than the party. In Maine, Senator Susan Collins trails in the market but is priced to run ahead of her party’s 2024 presidential vote in a state Kamala Harris won by about seven. In Oregon, Governor Tina Kotek is favored but priced below Harris’s 2024 margin. In New Hampshire, Governor Kelly Ayotte is favored in a state Harris carried by about three points. In Vermont, Republican Governor Phil Scott is favored in a state Harris carried by about 33 points.
Here’s how our conversion works. A market price is a probability, not a vote count, so to compare it with an election result we translate each race’s price into the share of the two-party vote it implies. A candidate at 70% to win implies roughly 52% of the vote. Then we set that share against how the same state voted for president in 2024.
The conversion only works where a race is genuinely contested. Above 90%, the converted share tops out around 61% even for a 99% favorite, well short of a real landslide, so those races are listed without a swing figure.
Kalshi also runs its own margin-of-victory markets. Where those trade, the table shows Kalshi’s implied margin next to ours as a cross-check. Kalshi’s margin is on the total vote and ours comes from the two-party share, so the two can differ where third-party candidates draw votes. They differ by more than five points of margin in the Nebraska governor race. Kalshi’s own margin markets price most of these races closer than our conversion does, about two thirds of our margin at the median, with the same leader in every race. Pulling a race toward a tie lowers the Democratic share where the Democrat leads and raises it where the Republican leads, and most races in the middle of our list are Republican-led. So on Kalshi’s margins, the median shift toward Democrats comes out slightly larger: 6.4 points against our 5.8. On November 4 we’ll show which of the two came closer to the result.
Before applying it to this year’s races, we tested the conversion on 43 races from the 2024 and 2025 elections that Kalshi priced between 10% and 90% three days before the vote. It landed within four points of the certified two-party result in 42 of them, with an average miss of 1.6 points.¹
The prices behind this year’s estimates, shown in the tables below, were recorded on November 1, 2026, at 10:07 PM ET, before any polls closed, and locked with a digital fingerprint (sha256 6d6e61cdccc0f30639dc826dcd7d40250c1946aaf8e106477c7637f2f1755648). We’ll publish the frozen file so anyone can check it against this code. On November 4, we’ll set every number here beside the actual results, including the races where the markets missed.
Competitive races: our estimates, race by race
Neither side priced above 90%.⁴ Sorted by estimated swing, in points of the two-party vote; positive is toward Democrats. Margins are Democratic margin in points.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Market favorite and price | Source | PharosGraph estimated Democratic share | 2024 presidential Democratic share | PharosGraph estimated swing | PharosGraph implied margin | Kalshi margin market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Governor³ | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | Bernadette Wilson | Kreiss-Tomkins (D), 86% | Kalshi | 55.0% | 43.2%² | +11.9 | +10.1 | +8.0 |
| Iowa Governor | Rob Sand | Zach Lahn | Sand (D), 85% | Kalshi | 54.8% | 43.3% | +11.5 | +9.6 | +4.9 |
| Ohio Governor | Amy Acton | Vivek Ramaswamy | Acton (D), 80% | Kalshi | 53.9% | 44.3% | +9.6 | +7.8 | +4.8 |
| Texas Senate | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | Talarico (D), 71% | Kalshi | 52.6% | 43.1% | +9.5 | +5.2 | +3.5 |
| Alaska Senate³ | Mary Peltola | Dan S. Sullivan | Peltola (D), 71% | Kalshi | 52.5% | 43.2%² | +9.4 | +5.1 | +2.6 |
| Kansas Senate | Adam Hamilton | Roger Marshall | Hamilton (D), 60% | Kalshi | 51.1% | 41.8% | +9.3 | +2.3 | +2.0 |
| Ohio Senate | Sherrod Brown | Jon Husted | Brown (D), 70% | Kalshi | 52.4% | 44.3% | +8.1 | +4.8 | +3.9 |
| South Carolina Senate | Annie Andrews | Darline Graham | Graham (R), 68% | Kalshi | 47.8% | 40.9% | +6.9 | −4.4 | −2.7 |
| Mississippi Senate | Scott Colom | Cindy Hyde-Smith | Hyde-Smith (R), 86% | Kalshi | 45.0% | 38.4% | +6.6 | −10.0 | −7.3 |
| Iowa Senate | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | Hinson (R), 52% | Kalshi | 49.7% | 43.3% | +6.4 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Louisiana Senate | Jamie Davis Jr. | Julia Letlow | Letlow (R), 86% | Kalshi | 45.1% | 38.8% | +6.2 | −9.9 | −5.9 |
| Kansas Governor | Cindy Holscher | Ty Masterson | Masterson (R), 69% | Kalshi | 47.7% | 41.8% | +5.9 | −4.6 | −3.8 |
| Texas Governor | Gina Hinojosa | Greg Abbott | Abbott (R), 61% | Kalshi | 48.7% | 43.1% | +5.7 | −2.6 | −2.4 |
| Florida Governor | David Jolly | Byron Donalds | Donalds (R), 61% | Kalshi | 48.7% | 43.4% | +5.3 | −2.7 | −2.3 |
| Wisconsin Governor | David Crowley | Tom Tiffany | Crowley (D), 82% | Kalshi | 54.2% | 49.6% | +4.7 | +8.5 | +5.0 |
| Nevada Governor | Aaron Ford | Joe Lombardo | Ford (D), 74% | Kalshi | 53.0% | 48.4% | +4.6 | +6.0 | +3.6 |
| Nebraska Governor | Lynne Walz | Jim Pillen | Pillen (R), 90.0% | Kalshi | 44.1% | 39.6% | +4.5 | −11.8 | −6.7 |
| Michigan Senate | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | El-Sayed (D), 76% | Kalshi | 53.2% | 49.3% | +4.0 | +6.5 | +3.3 |
| Georgia Governor | Keisha Lance Bottoms | Rick Jackson | Bottoms (D), 68% | Kalshi | 52.2% | 48.9% | +3.3 | +4.4 | +2.5 |
| Florida Senate | Angie Nixon | Ashley Moody | Moody (R), 86% | Kalshi | 45.0% | 43.4% | +1.6 | −10.0 | −5.4 |
| Maine Senate | Troy Jackson | Susan Collins | Jackson (D), 72% | Kalshi | 52.7% | 53.5% | −0.9 | +5.4 | +3.3 |
| Oregon Governor | Tina Kotek | Christine Drazan | Kotek (D), 80% | Kalshi | 53.9% | 57.4% | −3.5 | +7.8 | +4.9 |
| New Hampshire Governor | Cinde Warmington | Kelly Ayotte | Ayotte (R), 88% | Kalshi | 44.6% | 51.4% | −6.8 | −10.8 | −6.3 |
| Vermont Governor | Amanda Janoo | Phil Scott | Scott (R), 66% | Kalshi | 48.1% | 66.4% | −18.3 | −3.8 | −3.1 |
Races not in contention
One side priced above 90%.
| Race | Favorite | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama Governor | Tommy Tuberville (R) | 94% | Kalshi |
| Arkansas Governor | Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) | 97% | Kalshi |
| Arizona Governor | Katie Hobbs (D) | 91% | Kalshi |
| California Governor | Xavier Becerra (D) | 97% | Kalshi |
| Colorado Governor | Phil Weiser (D) | 95% | Kalshi |
| Connecticut Governor | Ned Lamont (D) | 96% | Kalshi |
| Hawaii Governor | Josh Green (D) | 98% | Kalshi |
| Idaho Governor | Brad Little (R) | 98% | Kalshi |
| Illinois Governor | J.B. Pritzker (D) | 97% | Kalshi |
| Massachusetts Governor | Maura Healey (D) | 97% | Kalshi |
| Maryland Governor | Wes Moore (D) | 99% | Kalshi |
| Maine Governor | Hannah Pingree (D) | 96% | Kalshi |
| Michigan Governor | Jocelyn Benson (D) | 93% | Kalshi |
| Minnesota Governor | Amy Klobuchar (D) | 97% | Kalshi |
| New Mexico Governor | Deb Haaland (D) | 94% | Kalshi |
| New York Governor | Kathy Hochul (D) | 96% | Kalshi |
| Oklahoma Governor | Mike Mazzei (R) | 91% | Kalshi |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Josh Shapiro (D) | 98% | Kalshi |
| Rhode Island Governor | Helena Foulkes (D) | 99% | Kalshi |
| South Carolina Governor | Alan Wilson (R) | 96% | Kalshi |
| South Dakota Governor | Larry Rhoden (R) | 97% | Kalshi |
| Tennessee Governor | Marsha Blackburn (R) | 94% | Kalshi |
| Wyoming Governor | Eric Barlow (R) | 99% | Kalshi |
| Alabama Senate | Barry Moore (R) | 99% | Kalshi |
| Arkansas Senate | Tom Cotton (R) | 96% | Kalshi |
| Colorado Senate | John Hickenlooper (D) | 99% | Kalshi |
| Delaware Senate | Chris Coons (D) | over 99% | Kalshi |
| Georgia Senate | Jon Ossoff (D) | 97% | Kalshi |
| Illinois Senate | Juliana Stratton (D) | 98% | Kalshi |
| Kentucky Senate | Andy Barr (R) | 96% | Kalshi |
| Massachusetts Senate | Ed Markey (D) | 98% | Kalshi |
| Minnesota Senate | Peggy Flanagan (D) | 91% | Kalshi |
| North Carolina Senate | Roy Cooper (D) | 97% | Kalshi |
| New Hampshire Senate | Chris Pappas (D) | 92% | Kalshi |
| New Jersey Senate | Cory Booker (D) | 98% | Kalshi |
| New Mexico Senate | Ben Ray Luján (D) | 98% | Kalshi |
| Oklahoma Senate | Kevin Hern (R) | 97% | Kalshi |
| Oregon Senate | Jeff Merkley (D) | 98% | Kalshi |
| Rhode Island Senate | Jack Reed (D) | over 99% | Kalshi |
| Tennessee Senate | Bill Hagerty (R) | 97% | Kalshi |
| Virginia Senate | Mark Warner (D) | 98% | Kalshi |
| West Virginia Senate | Shelley Moore Capito (R) | 98% | Kalshi |
| Wyoming Senate | Harriet Hageman (R) | 99% | Kalshi |
Not shown: the Idaho, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota Senate races, where the markets don’t price a Democrat-vs-Republican matchup. In Nebraska, the challenger, Dan Osborn, is an independent.
¹ The back-test covers the presidential vote in eight states, eight Senate races, one governor race and 23 House races in 2024, plus New Jersey’s 2025 governor race and two 2025 House special elections (Florida’s 6th and Tennessee’s 7th). It uses Kalshi prices. Its one Alaska race was scored on first-round counts.
² Statewide two-party presidential result.
³ Alaska’s governor and Senate races use ranked-choice voting. Our estimate is for the two-candidate final round; races without a majority are tabulated on November 18.
⁴ Competitive means neither side above 90% on the two-party price. Prices shown are each market’s price on a two-party basis, not the raw market price.
Follow along on November 4, when these numbers meet the results: maps.pharosgraph.com/atlas/2026