Feeding the Fire: Inflation Snapshot vs. Reality Check

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) update released last week offered a hopeful headline: inflation is softening, particularly for goods that are bought infrequently.

But while the rear view mirror shows a calmer picture, on-the-ground conversation tells a different story. In county after county, consumers are still feeling squeezed by eggs, fuel, rent, and everything in between. This isn’t just about economics. It’s about perception. And perception isn’t measured monthly, it shifts by the week, by the headline, and by the checkout receipt. 

That’s where PharosGraph’s real-time, county-level Narrative Intelligence comes in. Our model reads how consumers feel about affordability, right now and reveals the emotional tone behind the data.

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‍From CPI Calm to Consumer Concern

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While the official numbers suggest inflation is easing, weekly consumer product saliency data tells us a different story. From mid-April to May 18th, anxiety around key spending categories has surged: 

• Energy: Still leading at 16.9%, with barely any dip since its April spike
• Healthcare: Rising steadily from 10% to 10.8%.
• Housing: Quietly climbing from 8.5% to 9.3%, a key source of long-term stress.
• Technology: Eased slightly from its April high, but still elevated.
• Food: Back on the rise at 9.6%.

And some categories, like childcare and telecom, which show negligible concern in CPI, are nearly invisible to traditional metrics despite the real fear around access and affordability in many communities. 

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Why it matters:

CPI looks backward. Consumers look forward. Brands must bridge that gap. 

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The Food Flash-point: What's Bubbling Up?

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Nowhere is this more emotionally charged than the grocery aisle. While economists note prices may be “flattening,” consumers feel the squeeze intensify. 

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Here’s what’s evolved from April 20 to May 11:

• Eggs: Spiked from 9.4% to a peak of 11.3%, now at 7.8%, still double March levels. 
• Turkey & Wine: Quiet in March, now at 6.9% and 5.2% respectively, surprise price villains for adults seeking a relaxing glass and lean protein!
• Coffee: Consistent rise to 5.7%. A small item with a big symbolic weight.  
• Butter, Cheese, Tea: Quietly creeping up, symbols of household stability. 

That symbolic weight of coffee is a great example of how prices are reshaping daily routines. People are pulling back from café culture, skipping the $6 latte to brew at home instead. And social media is ready to help with at-home espresso hacks, budget pour over tutorials and personal stories of “Starbucks sobriety”! Simply put, price is changing behavior, not just budgets. 

Consumers seeking a much desired relaxing glass are reconsidering their wine purchases. While domestic wine remains relatively stable, shoppers are showing signs of restraint. And noises around trading down from Napa Valley to local blends or even switching to boxed wine reveals a deeper behavioral shift.  It’s not just that wine costs more; it’s that wine is becoming more of a selective purchase, tied to fewer occasions. 

Even as some seafood items (fish, shrimp, salmon) begin to normalize, the psychological impact remains. Items that spiked, even briefly, stay on the “watch list”. 

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Key Business Takeaway: 

It’s not just the price. It’s the “movement” of price, and how fast the mood changes with it. And it’s not just cost. It’s consumption.

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Narrative Heat Map: Who’s Getting Blamed

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Our model doesn’t just track prices; it listens for blame. And the stories consumers are telling about “why” life feels less affordable are shifting.