RaceScape · 2026 General · Maine CD-2

ME-02 · Paul LePage

Two-term former governor running for an R+4 open House seat in a Trump +10 district. Mobilization-led plan with a real persuasion layer to keep him acceptable under ranked-choice voting.

ZIP5 resolution · Favorite on the fundamentals · turnout race

Snapshot

110

ZIPs

232K

Voters

55/45

GOTV / Persuade

Recommended spend split

GOTV 55% Persuade 45%

The play

GOTV Mobilize the base

67 ZIPs · 125,781 voters

Lead issue

Cost of Living and the Rural Economy

Rural northern and eastern Maine: Aroostook, Penobscot, Piscataquis, Somerset, and the mill and farm towns of the interior.

Persuade Move the swing

43 ZIPs · 106,496 voters

Lead issue

Affordability and Accountability

Working-class swing voters in Lewiston-Auburn, the Bangor suburbs, and the Kennebec Valley who like the economic message but are wary of the messenger.

Lead with this

Cost of Living and the Rural Economy. LePage's durable brand is the fighter for working, rural Mainers on costs, energy, and taxes. The message travels from his base into the persuadable mill towns and keeps the race about affordability, where the district leans his way, rather than about his personality, where it does not.

Don't take the bait

Don't make the race about Paul LePage. His negatives are the opposition's only real weapon in an R+4 seat. A personality-and-grievance campaign hands them the referendum they need and risks punishing second-choice transfers under ranked-choice voting. Keep the contrast on costs and competence.

Filter by county

← Show all counties

Top ZIPs · ranked by modeled support

Related Scape

Source: PharosGraph Audience Intelligence pipeline. Modeled two-way support against the actual nominee, refreshed weekly, projected onto every ZIP using census structure and demographics, scoped to voters likely to turn out in November 2026. Standings anchored to the betting markets and the district fundamentals. Audience rolls up to ZIP5 for digital, direct mail, connected TV, and digital-out-of-home buys.