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Feeding the Fire: How Food Inflation Fuels Market Narratives and Moral Blame
By
Mathieu Trepanier
22 Apr 2025
•
12 min read
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Introduction: When Pricing Pain Becomes Political Firepower
Inflation isn’t just a number. It’s a flashpoint. When nearly a third of Americans say they’ll skip buying eggs until prices fall below $5 a dozen, they’re not just talking about breakfast, they’re making a statement.
Sure, traditional metrics like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) tell us what’s happening. But not why. Why do some products spark outrage while others slide under the radar? Why do some folks blame D.C. while others point to Wall Street?
At PharosGraph,we’re all about getting beneath the surface. Using our AI-powered Narrative Intelligence model, we set out to understand the emotional undercurrent behind food price inflation: who’s catching the blame, how narratives shift across the country,and what businesses and policymakers can actually do with that insight.
Blame Attribution by County
HighNeutralLow
Here's what we'll unpack:
The emotional temperature around inflation right now
Which products are under the most scrutiny
Who’s getting blamed and where
And what that means for your messaging and strategy
A Market on Edge: The Emotional Pulse of 2025
Key topics in economic news
US News – January 1 to May 18 2025
The first few months of 2025 have been anything but calm. Economic jitters, a new administration settling in, and global trade tensions have everyone on edge. Inflation may not be grabbing as many headlines lately but don’t be fooled. It’s because other headlines are crowding it out.
But make no mistake, inflation is very much on people's mind, lurking just beneath the surface and with the ongoing trade war, we expect it to come right back to the forefront. For brands, consumer frustration is high, and pricing missteps carry more risk than ever. Emotions are running high, which for brands means pricing missteps could be more than a bad look they could be a full-blown backlash.
Inflation mood index
US News – January 1 to May 18 2025
Product category saliency in inflation-related news
US News - January 1 to May 18 2025
As of mid-April, here’s what’s climbing the worry ladder:
Energy (16.3%): From gas pumps to heating bills, energy is still stealing the spotlight.
Technology (12.3%): Device prices and supply hiccups are getting more attention.
Healthcare & Education: Slowly but surely becoming bigger blips on the radar.
Insurance, Telecom & Childcare: Not as buzzy right now, but that could change.
Bottom line:In high-visibility sectors, transparency is everything. In quieter corners of the market, brands need to work harder to stay relevant and justify every price tag.
From Aisle Rage to Advocacy: Why Food Hits a Nerve
Let’s talk groceries. Some items have moved beyond “expensive” into full-on emotional territory. Eggs, for instance, have become a symbol of frustration, of fairness, of what feels broken.
Saliency of food & beverage product categories in inflation-related news
US News – January 1 to May 18 2025
What’s in the spotlight?
Eggs (9.4%): Still the poster child for inflation angst.
Seafood (Shrimp 6.3%, Salmon 6.2%, Fish 7%): Gaining heat.
Milk, Salt, Beer: Steady attention, each above 3.9%.
Meanwhile, juice, tea, and cheese are losing steam. Interestingly, niche categories like organic goods and Latin American cuisine are quietly gaining traction.
What it means: Food pricing isn't just a matter of dollars and cents. It's about whether prices feel fair and whether consumers believe someone's profiting at their expense.
Who's to Blame? Depends on Where you Stand
Our Narrative Intelligence model tracks seven major “villains” that keep showing up in public blame stories. Here's what’s coming through loud and clear:
Blame Shifts by Region: A local Lens on a National Issue
Blame Attribution by County
HighNeutralLow
Where you live shapes who you blame. This is how blame shifts across the regions:
Western U.S. (CA, OR, WA):
Big corporations & oil firms. China excuses wearing thin.
What it means for brands: One message doesn’t fit all. Tone, timing, and narrative alignment matter more than ever.
Seafood Surge: April's Surprise Storyline
Seafood is suddenly at center stage. It may not fill the shelves like bread and milk, but it's grabbing a bigger share of inflation anxiety.
Food category saliency %
Top 20 for May 2025
Narrative Movement:
Trump policies are gaining blame as people revisit trade impacts.
The Fed is under pressure, with Chair Powell getting more heat especially in conservative areas.
Biden remains polarizing, with sharp partisan divides in the blame game.
Corporate greed is still a loud theme in food, energy, and housing.
Oil & gas firms are seeing a slight narrative shift as blame spreads to the entire energy system.
China is currently slipping in narrative terms as concerns over domestic policies take the lead. But with trade tensions heating up again, that spotlight could soon return.
So, What Should Brands Do About It?
People are spending more carefully. They’re watching headlines. They’re watching brands.
Here’s how to stay ahead of the narrative:
Stay plugged into real-time perceptions dynamics. It moves fast.
Match your message to the local mood.
Don’t wait to explain prices, get ahead of assumptions instead.
Suggested Messaging by Blame Target:
Final Word: Inflation Is Emotional, Not Just Economic
At the end of the day, inflation isn’t just about prices. It’s about trust, fairness, and control. It’s about how people feel at checkout, how they vote, and what they demand from the companies they buy from.
Brands that ignore public sentiment don’t just risk losing customers they risk becoming the villain in the story.
Perception is currency. Use it wisely.
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Mathieu Trepanier
Founder, PharosGraph
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COMING SOON
A Global Trade War is brewing and with consequences that could dwarf what we've seen so far.
From retaliatory tariffs to export bans and supply chain nationalism, the rules of global trade are being rewritten in real time. PharosGraph’s next report unpacks the new trade battlegrounds, the emerging narratives, and how smart brands, agencies, political parties, national and international institutions can prepare before the headlines hit.